Climate change science: The facts

Climate Change Science

Climate change — or global warming — isn't a theory. It's a scientific fact. It's a solid as the science behind evolution, or the proof that cigarettes cause cancer.

If you don't believe that, then give us 10 minutes to convince you. Unless of course, you don't believe in science, or you believe that scientists are all closet socialists who have perpetrated a global conspiracy designed to destroy the world's wealthy nations. If you're that paranoid, then we have nothing to talk about. You'll be happier at a conspiracy site about the JFK assassination, or the faked moon landing. We'll try to find a few links for you.

The science supporting global warming — or climate change — is incontrovertible. In the last seven or eight years, it has move from strong theory to unassailable fact.

Science isn't a religion, but it does have rules and and a deep, methodical process for studying our universe. This article in Wikipedia explains how it works. The scientific method is not foolproof, but by dint of hard work, trial and error, and repetition, scientists work their way a greater understanding of our universe, and all of humanity benefits. (See also this article at Deltoid by Dr. John Mashey).

Occasionally, great leaps forward in understanding are wrought by brilliant insight or serendipity. But mostly, scientists take baby steps, bringing new light to some dense topic.

But here's the thing. Scientists don't work in isolation, they collaborate and correct and debate, and they build on the science that went before. Sometimes, the science confirms the earlier work, and knowledge is advanced. But sometimes we gain new insight, and old ideas are discarded in favor of a new understanding that better fits observations.

Scientists publish their work in peer-reviewed scientific journals, which means that their work has been vetted by other experts in their field of study. If their work is shoddy, or hopelessly flawed, it simply doesn't get published, and their research money will dry up. Hence the old sobriquet Publish or Perish.

The essential science of global warming has been known for more than 120 years — that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas with the potential to warm planet earth. Even a sixth-grader has proof. The warmest planet in the solar system isn't the one closest to the sun; it's the second planet, the one with a thick blanket of carbon dioxide (CO2). And since the invention of the steam engine, the concentration of CO2 on planet earth has increased by 40 percent.

Over the last 40 years, the global warming process has been poked, prodded, and examined in almost every way possible. It has been studied in computer models, it has been analyzed by satellites, and it has been understood through real-world measurements and experiments. And all of this research — thousands upon thousands of distinct studies — have brought us to an unfortunate understanding.

Global warming is the greatest challenge our planet has ever faced.

In a nutshell, what scientists have discovered has been so serious and so incontrovertible that it has scared them. They have come to overwhelming conclusion that global warming is real, and it represents a significant and ominous threat. Many are leaving their ivory towers to speak out, to talk to the media, and warn them of the catastrophic consequences for humanity.

And for that, these same scientists have become the focal point of a mean, dirty, dishonest smear campaign that has sullied their reputations, and brought threats against their lives.

Consider Dr. James Hansen, NASA's leading climate scientist, who in 1981 was a member of a team that published a landmark study that first spoke to global warming's dangers. It was a thorough and cautious document, and the science still stands up more than 25 years later. In 1988, Hansen testified before congress, explaining in simple, yet provocative phrases that humanity was on an unsustainable path that would lead to global misery. History, and science, has vindicated virtually every claim he had made that day.

So far, it's not too bad, because we stand at the beginning. But in the next five to 10 years, or perhaps less, the problems will begin to magnify and accelerate. The war in Darfur, for example, is an early example, as a formerly fertile area became parched, and couldn't support as many people as it has in the past.

And yet among global warning deniers, and conservative politicians, Hansen is vilified as the Antichrist. Opponents have lied about his career, suggesting that Hansen originally called for a new ice age, and then changed his mind in the 1980s. (He didn't). They've said that all of his early predictions have not come to pass. (In fact, his research has been vindicated by thousands of studies, and we're almost exactly where he said we would be 25 years later). They have described him as an Al Gore acolyte who took money to falsify data and research. (A few minor errors in data analysis at NASA have uncovered; but rather than proof of a global conspiracy, it's actually proof that the scientific method works). Hansen has even be chastised for being so very good at what he does that he's won several major international awards for his contributions to science, but many again spout slander and libel, suggesting that these awards are merely payback for selling his soul. (Hansen was honored by the Heinz Foundation, a nonprofit started by the family of Democratic Senator John Kerry's wife, Theresa Heinz, proof yet again of perfidy, or so the paranoid would tell us).

Hansen isn't getting wealthy by sounding a clarion bell for global warming. He's a brilliant scientist who is trying to do the right thing.

And his work, and the work of thousands of climate scientists, are painting a very dim future for our children, and our grandchildren.

Read more about tobacco companies and astroturfing — and how oil companies are muddying the waters and confusing people.

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